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Mark Hirst – @MarkAHirst

Mark discusses the NLS run-in

THE RUN-IN

Very rarely could a midweek game in front of 520 people turn out to be one of the most consequential fixtures of a season. But fans of half a dozen clubs will have been constantly checking X and Livescore for updates from the Hornchurch Stadium & celebrating The Urchins’ 1-0 win against leaders Worthing on Tuesday.

National League South is now very much wide open. Thankfully there are no teams with fixture pile-ups & every team will enter the final weekend in March with 6 games to play. We take a look at the run-in for the 7 teams who will still believe they have a chance of finishing top of the division.

Worthing

Pts 77 GD+12 – Manager: Chris Agutter – Top Goalscorer: Mo Faal

Maximum points from 2 winnable games in the last week & we’d be talking about who was going up with The Rebels. But we know very well that a trip to Welling can end in disappointment. Surely Worthing would bounce back with a win at Hornchurch? No! Having won 5 in-a-row, extending that run to 7 would have put them 7 points clear. But now the gap is just a single point.

On paper, they have the hardest run-in, with the average position of the opponents being 9.8. They should get their season back on track with a game against hapless Hampton & Richmond – if you could pick a team to play right now, they would be the choice, having lost 10 of the last 11. But then Truro visit & will that reignite the nerves that seem to have surfaced? If that doesn’t go well, they could well have lost their lead, knowing that they still have to play Eastbourne and Dorking Wanderers over the Easter weekend.

Even a final day trip to Enfield could be a banana skin – 10 points from the last 4 games (including a dramatic late win v Truro) mean they have pulled 5 points clear of the relegation zone, but they may still need something by that point to avoid the drop. Strangely Worthing also have significantly the worst goal difference of the top 7, which could prove crucial.

Truro City

Pts 76 GD+26 – Manager: John Askey – Top Goalscorer: Tyler Harvey

We know all about blowing 2-0 leads, but Truro’s collapse at Enfield earlier this month was even more spectacular – Having been 2 up at half-time, they still had a lead deep into added time before conceding twice, for their only defeat in the last 12. Without those late goals, Truro would be top and their recent form has been good, with 7 wins in the last 9.

However only 1 of those last 9 games has been against a team in the top 8 (W2-1 v Boreham Wood) & their fixtures are about to get a fair bit harder. Their next 3 are all away – Chelmsford & Hornchurch won’t be easy & sandwiched in between is a visit to Worthing. And then it’s the Good Friday clash with Torquay. To be fair, their home form has been great, 13 wins is the joint-most, with Farnborough. But their 3 home defeats were all against contenders – Dorking, Eastbourne & Maidstone, so I see no reason why the Gulls shouldn’t go there and complete the double.

Truro finish with Weston-super Mare (A) and St Albans (H). Both may still have plenty to play for, but equally their seasons may be over. I think trying to figure out Truro’s final total is the hardest of the lot.

Eastbourne Borough

Pts 75 GD+21 – Manager: Adam Murray – Top Goalscorer: George Alexander

Eastbourne seem to be the team nobody ever seems to mention, despite holding a top 7 place for most of the season. Maybe it’s to do with the fact they were a lowly 19th last season. But we have to take them very seriously – especially if they were to win at Dorking on Saturday. They also host Worthing on Good Friday and every one of their opponents has something to play for (at this stage anyway).

They have lost only twice since November, at Torquay & Boreham Wood and are the only team with an unbeaten home record in NLS this season. We played OK there to earn a point back in October, but I wasn’t a fan of their pitch & wouldn’t want to play on it in the play-offs. They also have 21-goal George Alexander in top form, with 9 goals in his last 7 appearances. They should not be taken for granted.

Dorking Wanderers

Pts 74 GD+29 – Manager: Marc White – Top Goalscorer: Alfie Rutherford

They are renowned for talking a good game, in which case they will probably believe that they have underachieved this season. They are still only 3 points off the top, but have not put together a run longer than 3 straight wins. They desperately needed that win at Boreham Wood last weekend after Torquay had strolled away from Surrey with all 3 points.

Despite having the plastic pitch advantage, they have actually been much better on their travels this season, winning 12 of their 20 away games. And that could be key, as they travel to Worthing in the penultimate game of the season on Easter Monday.

There’s another crunch clash on Saturday, when they host Eastbourne – otherwise they have 4 games you’d probably expect them to win. Their goal difference is also the joint-best. But the general consensus from our recent game against them was they would have to significantly improve to be champions. Let’s hope that they don’t.

Torquay United

Pts 74 GD+22 – Manager: Paul Wotton – Top Goalscorer: Cody Cooke

I looked at soccerstats.com earlier to see where we stood in their Projected Points table & was slightly surprised to see our 86.78 figure is the highest. So that’s it then, call the rest of the season off, we’re going up!

Soccerstats.com Projected Points Table

They base their projections on the points-per-game that future opponents have accrued in home or away games. In theory, it is a favourable set of games ahead. So I had a look at how we get on against top/bottom half teams and as I suspected, the quality of opposition makes absolutely no difference to Torquay!

We average 1.85 points per game against top half teams, the best record in the division. The problem is that we also average 1.85 against bottom half teams!

So whilst none of the teams to visit Plainmoor have much of an away pedigree, it doesn’t matter! We are just as likely to drop points then as playing at Truro.

I think we’ll need a minimum of 14 points to be champions and it could easily go down to the last game at Hemel Hempstead. They’ve had a really strange season, setting off as League leaders before a complete collapse saw them lose 11 of 12 games in October & November. But they’ve picked up again, though too late for a play-off challenge. They are the League’s top home scorers, but concede a lot too. It’s all set for a crazy 9-goal thriller on the final day!

Boreham Wood

Pts 71 GD+29 – Manager: Luke Garrard – Top Goalscorer: Kwesi Appiah

They have never quite delivered the title challenge that they threatened at the turn of the year, when they won 8 games in 9 and went to the top of the table. Recent back-to-back defeats v Weymouth & Dorking mean they have only 6 wins in the last 14.

After Saturday’s trip to Maidstone, they have a favourable set of fixtures – could they win all 6? I think they’d have to, but 24 goal Kwesi Appiah has only 1 goal in his last 7 appearances and they would need him to start scoring again.

With the best home defensive record in the division, a trip to Meadow Park in the play-offs wouldn’t be the easiest. But at least it’s got grass…

Maidstone United

Pts 70 GD+27 – Manager: George Elokobi – Top Goalscorer: Aaron Blair

Can Maidstone make up 7 points in the last 6 games and hope the rest of the teams in front of them stumble? I don’t think so. They have 2 tough games v Boreham Wood & WSM coming up, before a relatively easy final 4 games. Even maximum points may not be enough. They’ll be looking to pick up enough points to increase their chances of a home play-off game, where they will be dangerous against anyone.